„The Silk Road Economic Belt” (GHIASY & ZHOU 2017)

 Robert Ghiasy & Jiayi Zhou, The Silk Road Economic Belt. Considering security implications
and EU–China cooperation prospects, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute & Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 2017

Dan Smith (Director SIPRI) & Jurgen Stetten (FES), Preface v

Acknowledgements vii

Executive summary ix

1. The Silk Road Economic Belt dissected 1

Key Findings

1.1. Defining the scope and aims 2

1.2. Exploring China’s motivations 4

Domestic economic security: new markets and balancing growth

Going Out 2.0: stimulating globalization, integration and development

Enhancing China’s energy security

Increasing China’s global financial clout

Mitigating common threats and securing China’s neighbourhood

Facilitating Asian security cooperation

‘Pushing and shoving’ to the east, garnering strategic space to the west

Facing ongoing challenges and concerns

1.3. Relation to China’s evolving security concepts 12

1.4. Conclusions 16

2. The Silk Road Economic Belt: interaction with regional security dynamics 19

Key Findings

2.1. Interaction with security dynamics in Central Asia 19

Interacting with security threats

Facing interstate disputes and tensions

Assessing weak institutions and poor governance

Confronting terrorism and extremism

Mitigating economic problems and social unrest

Addressing ecological issues

2.2. Interaction with security dynamics in South Asia 28

Motivating factors to develop CPEC

CPEC interaction with security dynamics in Pakistan

CPEC compatibility with Indian security interests

CPEC compatibility with Afghan security interests

CPEC interaction with South Asian security dynamics

2.3. Compatibility with Russian security interests 39

2.4. Conclusions 42

3. The Silk Road Economic Belt: an opportunity for European Union–China 45

cooperation?

Key Findings

3.1. Compatibility with European Union security interests 45

EU interests in Central and South Asia

Central Asia

South Asia

3.2. Ways forward for the European Union 50

Potential avenues of security cooperation

Policy recommendations for the European Union - Over the short term - Over the short to medium term - Over the medium term

Annex I. United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 57

Annex II. Abbreviations 59

List of figures

Figure 2.1. Map of Central Asia illustrating Silk Road Economic Belt 24

projects and fragility indicators per state

Figure 2.2. Map of South Asia illustrating China–Pakistan Economic Corridor 34

projects and interaction with South Asian security dynamics